Labour has to hope for low turnouts* if it wants to wins seats in the Notts County Council elections due this coming May.

 *With a few exceptions, it is fair to say that in the 2017 Nottinghamshire County Council elections, Labour did badly. Just one Division/Ward won in the district council areas of Ashfield, Broxtowe and Rushcliffe.

With the exception of Beeston Rylands (41.8%) and West Bridgford North (47.2%), Labour won 16 divisions on turnouts averaging 31.9%. In the three Mansfield divisions Labour won, the turnout averaged 27.1%. 

In the 28 divisions the Conservatives won the average turnout was 38.4%, whilst the division with the second highest turnout of all was Bramcote & Beeston North with 48.2% and the only seat on Notts County Council to be won by a Liberal Democrat councillor (Steve Carr).

Put another way, out of the 18 divisions Labour won 10 (56%) on turnouts of 33% or less (in the Broxtowe 2019 Borough Council elections Labour won seats in 3 out of 6 wards where the turnout was 33% or less). There is a pattern here that is mirrored in the 2019 Nottinghamshire Parliamentary elections.

You can also say the evidence shows that as turnouts go up so Labour is more likely to lose, be it a district council election, a county council election or for parliament. My earlier post shows this quite clearly for Broxtowe Borough Council and Nottinghamshire parliamentary constituencies. Now the figures here show it for Notts County Council too, as I have summarised above.

I have created a table similar to the Broxtowe turnout table and Nottinghamshire constituency graph you can find via the link above. Here is my table showing Notts County Council election 2017 turnouts by district councils and divisions ranked by turnout (CLICK ON THE TABLE TO ENLARGE):

I suspect the May 2021 county council elections may be postponed because of the continuing pandemic, but whenever it takes place if the turnout is low, then Labour could be the potential winner.

Broxtowe Borough Council elections. 1973–2019 What do they tell us?

Click on table to enlarge. 

Labour has only only won outright control of Broxtowe Borough Council twice (in 1995 and 1999). The Conservatives have won outright control 7 times and there have been 3 elections where no party has won outright control.

The Liberals did not have any councillors prior to 1987 but if their aim was to achieve a balance of power rather than outright control then they have been more successful than Labour.

The 1983 elections were muddied by the presence of SDP candidates who split the left vote to the advantage of the conservatives (their most councillors ever — 38).

The 2019 election on 2 May may see the intervention of candidates standing as 'Independents' supporting Anna Soubry and the breakaway 'Tiggies' (The Independent Group) and it would be foolhardy to try and predict the outcome of such a intervention.

Logic says Anna Soubry needs to create a grassroots organisation across the constituency if she wants to hold onto her seat for more than one general election. When better to road test it than in May’s borough elections.

We can all play around with statistics, but something special will have to happen in the next six weeks for Labour to take control of Broxtowe Borough Council. Perhaps, just perhaps, Anna Soubry fielding candidates might just split the Conservative vote enough for Labour to win — but this is assuming no Labour voters are tempted to vote Tiggy if they get the opportunity.

In the meantime all Labour can do is to motivate its supporters to vote whilst not making a lot of noise in the process. Ideally, Labour wants Conservative and Liberal supporters to fall asleep on 1st May and not wake up until 3rd May!

Anna Soubry more May's opposition than Labour - a truth we cannot afford to ignore.

I have pondered over making this post, but Anna Soubry has been speaking more for me of late than Labour MPs over Europe, open borders and Donald Trump.

I am not about to vote Conservative, but a good few Labour MPs and Jeremy Corbyn appear intent on upsetting Labour voters at every opportunity. When a political party loses credibility with voters, then voters stop listening and that is happening to Labour right now!

All Labour voters know Corbyn is no position to whip MPs simply because of his own voting record as a Labour MP and I have voted for him twice, but there won't be a third time. It is a problem of his own making and he is making a habit of doing stupid things. How I wanted him to succeed, but he has become the architect of his own failure and, at some point, I hope he will recognise this.

In an e-mail to constituents today Anna Soubry, the Conservative MP for Broxtowe, has said:

'As I said before the EU Referendum, I will respect and honour the result and so will be voting for the Bill which will begin the process of our leaving the EU. I have said this for many months now. I appreciate and understand why so many constituents will be deeply disappointed by my decision and I know marginally more - will be very pleased. I believe almost everyone is getting somewhat bored by Brexit and wants us to get on with it.'

Of Trump she said:

'Like most constituents, I was appalled to learn that President Trump has decided to impose a temporary ban on people and refugees from a number of countries which are predominantly Muslim.  This ban has no moral or factual justification. There hasn't been a single terrorist attack since 9/11 in America involving anyone who emigrated from or whose parents emigrated from any of the 7 countries on Trump's list. However, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt are not included in the ban even though their citizens have mounted terrorist attacks on the USA. 

We can accordingly be sure Trump's ban is based entirely on prejudice and unjustified fear which he seeks to stoke and exploit - meanwhile it appears he's keen not to harm his own financial interests.  In any event it is deeply offensive and plain wrong to stereotype any faith, religion or race on the wicked actions of a tiny minority. 

Our deep rooted sense of tolerance in Broxtowe is best exemplified in our Deputy Mayor Halimah Khaled and her family.  Like the overwhelming majority of British Muslims, Halimah embodies our traditional values of family, hard work, being involved in your community, respect for the rule of law, and tolerance. Perhaps President Trump would like to meet Halimah ,who is a Conservative, when he comes to our country.'

Now I know Anna Soubry has her critics, but I do not fall into the camp which says she can't be right because she's a Tory. Only if life was that simple.

Those MPs in England thinking of voting against Article 50 may ignore Corbyn, but MPs like Anna Soubry get stronger by the day because they appear to be the opposition to the Government - not Labour. Listen to ordinary voters and they are giving up on us. Corbynistas appear to be living in a world of their own making - as do many of the Labour MPs who oppose him.

Harriet Harman's interview in The Guardian/Observer today only compounds my frustration. Once upon a time I was a fan, but she lost me when she did not support Robin Cook in opposing the invasion of Iraq. Read the interview and despair!

Nine wasted months by local councils creating new CA. Will Broxtowe and Erewash Conservatives make the same mistake?

The local authorities of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire have quietly joined forces to submit a 'combined authority' (CA) bid to the Government. You can read all about it on Broxtowe Borough Council's website.

At the beginning of 2015, Nottinghamshire was insisting that it would be successful with its own bid to create a CA. It was never going to happen and I blogged in January 2015 why. I argued then for the creation of a 'then city' CA based on Derby and Nottingham (see a link to that post here).

NINETEEN councils have signed up to create this new super-council, including Broxtowe. They are a disparate bunch for a number of reasons - politics, social, economic and geography. History and time have moved on since Domesday and the great local government reforms of the late-19th century (everything else outside Greater London and the metropolitan counties created in 1974 has been no more than tinkering).

The creation of a Derby-Notts CA, which will come with an elected mayor/super leader, will bring with it inevitable change. Five tiers of local government, from the many many parish/town councils to the two county councils, was not sustainable when it was just Nottinghamshire bidding to become a CA. Now it is even less so. I would not be too surprised if Bassetlaw did not eventually leave the Derby-Notts CA and join the proposed Sheffield CA, based on the South Yorkshire unitary councils. It would make sense in every respect.

Greater Manchester set the ball rolling (in terms of public awareness) and is based on just nine unitary councils (not NINETEEN councils from three different levels), all created in 1974 when the Greater Manchester Metropolitan County Council came into being. It didn't last long. The Conservatives created the council under Ted Heath and another Conservative leader, Margaret Thatcher, abolished it in 1986, by which time the upstart council had earned a place in the affections of those who lived there. It continued to exist as a powerful voluntary partnership, jointly owning such things as Manchester Airport.

Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire have no such legacy to build on, but for it to work it will need to reduce the number of local political leaders. Broxtowe will have to cede powers to the new CA leader and the most important powers it will lose will be housing and planning. Privatise bin emptying services and you are left with Broxtowe becoming one big town council, who will then find itself under attack from the new CA and existing parish/town councils.

There is a way though for Broxtowe Borough Council to survive and I would suggest that is by teaming up with Erewash Borough Council. Both are Conservative controlled. Both border large Labour controlled city councils and, together, make a harmonious geographical area. Both have similar populations and total c.222,000 together - enough to create a sustainable unitary authority. If the Conservatives running the two councils could do this they would win twice - they would protect themselves from bigger city neighbours and almost certainly bring about the end of the two county councils. 

This, in my book, equals survival. It is a better fate than any of the others which await Broxtowe once the new CA exists. Leave it nine months and it will be 'bye bye Broxtowe' at some point. What would you do in this situation? Sit around and wait? I refuse to believe that Broxtowe Conservatives are that stupid. Act now and they stand a good chance of being in charge of their own destiny. 

I was right about the proposed Nottinghamshire CA at the beginning of 2015 and I am right again.

Remember, come the day, you read it here first.

PS. If you have not seen it, a Government report to Parliament in May 2015 is worth a look. Also the first CA in England is for Cornwall and the Scilly Isles. It is beginning happen...

The truth that dared not speak its name on a day I enjoyed

From just before 7am yesterday (election day) until 7.45pm Susan and me collected numbers for the Labour Party at the Beeston North ward Beeston Fields polling station. We took in turns to enjoy the company of the two Liberal candidates, Steve and Barbara Carr for every minute of that time.

The view from the bowling green pavilion is lovely and the polling station workers were friendly and supportive, as was everyone who turned up to vote. Only a few voters declined to share their polling card numbers or address with us, but no one was rude or aggressive. It really was a most enjoyable day, especially since we had shelter from the heavy rain which rolled in from the west for fifteen minutes every hour or so.

The only surprise came at 7.45pm,when I was told I could finish, because the Labour Party was going to stop collecting polling numbers. I had expected to be there until 9.30pm at least, later if the election appeared too close to call. I have never ever known number collecting to stop so early. The person who came to tell me was just the messenger. He did not know why. I toyed with the idea of staying on, but it would have been dishonest to take numbers when they were not going to be used, especially when the post-election marked register would provide the same information in more detail.

I have always rated number taking at polling stations as being important for a number of reasons. Information gathering, welcoming potential voters and just being at every polling station to show that you care. Steve and Barbara Carr clearly know this and if the number of voters who stopped to have a chat was anything to go by, then they were already winners, whatever the result. I also liked Steve's campaign badge, which simply said 'Carr x 2'. His posters around Beeston Fields just read 'Carr' printed in black on orange paper. My own poster for the two Labour candidates in Beeston North (see my post dated 25 April) also just had their names. All too often candidates and councillors allow themselves become ciphers and forget they are individuals, able to have their own opinions and to be independent.

Back home I received a telephone call and was told that the Labour Party had been knocking up since the morning and didn't seem to need the numbers. I think one could assume from this that the person in charge was confident of the outcome and expected to win (why else would you pull volunteers off number collection at polling stations). All the Labour workers we saw on the day were upbeat, but I wasn't so sure. There were no Conservatives or Greens to be seen anywhere in my part of Beeston Fields and UKIP made a brief appearance, then disappeared again. There was just the Carrs, Susan and me.

Last December in my second ever post, I drew attention to the Toton and Chilwell Meadow by-election result and said 'I am sure that Labour will have noted that whilst both the Conservative (+2.6%) and UKIP (+15.9%) share of the vote went up, Labour's went down (-5.9%). You ignore any election at your peril'. I added that I wanted Labour to win.

On Tuesday this week I drew attention to this and added:

Based on the last Toton & Chilwell Meadow by-election (My second ever post last December referred to the Toton & Chilwell Meadows by-election result, which you can find on the Broxtowe Borough Council website athttp://www.broxtowe.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=14189), I suspect the Liberal vote in Broxtowe is more centre-right than centre-left, which should be to the advantage of the Conservatives. Then there is the UKIP factor and, somewhere on the edge, the Greens. I want Nick Palmer to win, but I suspect that I will wake up on Friday morning to a number of surprise results.

The unspeakable, which I feared, happened. This incomplete summary below shows voting numbers for the Broxtowe parliamentary elections in 2010 and 2015:

I am of the view that numbers tell you more than percentages ever do. I think the above summary proves my point. I have not been able to find the no. of spoilt/rejected ballot papers for 2010, but the no. of votes voted in 2010 was 51,305 and 53,640 in 2015. In other words, more people actually voted in 2015.

In terms of actual votes cast, Labour and the Liberals were the only losers. The Greens, Conservatives and UKIP all increased their vote.

The Toton & Chilwell Meadows by-election last December has turned out to be a good projection of what happened in the parliamentary election yesterday.

This time there can be no blaming the Greens. I suspect a good few folk like me voted Labour and helped them by delivering and taking numbers as I did, to try and bring about a Conservative defeat. We did not succeed.

Historically, when general and local elections have happened on the same day, the winning party tends to do well in the local election. Later today we will know. I am fearful. As I have blogged in a recent post, Labour's local election campaign has been pitiful, with all the effort going into getting Nick Palmer elected, assuming that Labour councillors would be elected as a consequence.

The Greens argued that we should follow our beliefs. Next time I will.

Susan was gutted when we woke up to the results this morning. Her actual words were: 'I warn you now Robert. I am going to spend the next five years in a state of underlying depression'.

I have no views on what the Labour Party nationally should do. They lost my support in 2013 because I believed then, and still do, that they were wedded to a right-wing agenda. I am sorry for Nick Palmer, but if he has taken local council candidates with him, then they have will have been the authors of their own demise by allowing the Broxtowe Borough Council elections to be buried — something else I have blogged about recently.

I will write about the local elections next week.

SATURDAY FOOTNOTE.

The Conservatives have taken control of Broxtowe Borough Council and Kimberley ward is so close that there will be a recount on Monday evening. You could argue that Anna Soubry and her colleagues snuck up on Labour and have given them a nasty bite on the bum. She looked genuinely shocked to have won. I don't like Conservative politics, but experience has taught me you have to come to some kind of accommodation if you don't want to drown in a sea of negativity.