I have recently got into my head that trying to predict turnouts at elections is more important than trying to predict which parties the electorate will vote for. This is the result of conversations with my grandson, who is into election statistics and mapping the Labour Party's chances of winning power again.
Back in my Wembley South Young Socialist days we were asked to help Party members in Sudbury ward to organise and fight the Borough Elections in 1962. We got a great candidate and fought hard and it was the buzz of the count in Wembley Town Hall that hooked me for life on polling days and election organising. We came close to winning and just a few days ago during a Zoomtalk with Clive, who recruited me into a embryonic YS branch from the Young Liberals (where I went following a Sudbury girl I knew and whose brother remains a close friend and also joined the YS with me), he said he always regretted us canvassing the better off roads. Had we let the would-be Conservative voters sleep through the election campaign we may well have won, and that was the lesson I took away from an exciting election we lost: always fight below the radar. Low turnouts are better for Labour than high turnouts. As simple as that!
I have been a candidate in four elections for the Labour Party back in the 1970s and 80s. I won two in Birmingham as I expected to and I lost one in Sutton Coldfield, again as I expected to. In Nottingham I won a seat which was marginal and retained it for the Party until the city went unitary. I was also an agent more times than I can recall. I learnt early on that the best campaigning strategy is to select your candidate and to identify your support as soon as possible, then work it by staying in touch and canvassing only new voters and, the final touch, giving personal Party polling card (as we used to before they became official) to all known supporters and to ignore all other voters. I still think this is a good campaigning strategy. I also learnt early on that Labour does better when there are low turnouts and my recent post shows this very well for Nottingham-shire. Parliament's Library has data which also backs up my belief, as these two tables show for the 2017 and 2109 General Elections. In the constituencies with the lowest turnouts Labour won the most seats. I also created a similar graph for Broxtowe Borough Council election in 2019 and, yes, the three lowest turnouts were all in Labour seats. Here is the evidence. I will add a Nottinghamshire County Council 2017 elections graph before too long.*
* UPDATE: This now has its own post. Labour has to hope for low turnouts if it wants to wins seats in the Notts County Council elections due this coming May.
CLICK ON THE IMAGES TO ENLARGE:
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