Labour has to hope for low turnouts* if it wants to wins seats in the Notts County Council elections due this coming May.

 *With a few exceptions, it is fair to say that in the 2017 Nottinghamshire County Council elections, Labour did badly. Just one Division/Ward won in the district council areas of Ashfield, Broxtowe and Rushcliffe.

With the exception of Beeston Rylands (41.8%) and West Bridgford North (47.2%), Labour won 16 divisions on turnouts averaging 31.9%. In the three Mansfield divisions Labour won, the turnout averaged 27.1%. 

In the 28 divisions the Conservatives won the average turnout was 38.4%, whilst the division with the second highest turnout of all was Bramcote & Beeston North with 48.2% and the only seat on Notts County Council to be won by a Liberal Democrat councillor (Steve Carr).

Put another way, out of the 18 divisions Labour won 10 (56%) on turnouts of 33% or less (in the Broxtowe 2019 Borough Council elections Labour won seats in 3 out of 6 wards where the turnout was 33% or less). There is a pattern here that is mirrored in the 2019 Nottinghamshire Parliamentary elections.

You can also say the evidence shows that as turnouts go up so Labour is more likely to lose, be it a district council election, a county council election or for parliament. My earlier post shows this quite clearly for Broxtowe Borough Council and Nottinghamshire parliamentary constituencies. Now the figures here show it for Notts County Council too, as I have summarised above.

I have created a table similar to the Broxtowe turnout table and Nottinghamshire constituency graph you can find via the link above. Here is my table showing Notts County Council election 2017 turnouts by district councils and divisions ranked by turnout (CLICK ON THE TABLE TO ENLARGE):

I suspect the May 2021 county council elections may be postponed because of the continuing pandemic, but whenever it takes place if the turnout is low, then Labour could be the potential winner.

Let it snow let it snow...

 I do this post watching the snow fall onto the patio and our back garden whilst eating one of my homemade no added sugar penny buns, so called because they are small. I make them in batches enough to last 12-14 days, then freeze them. How I love snow and I see snow falling less frequently as one of the consequences of climate change. I can say this living close to the top of a hill, at no risk of flooding. 

Let me be clear, I know that as snow melts on higher ground it brings the risk of flooding to millions of people living in homes which have been built on floodplains without adequate defences in place, but I still love snow and will happily pay the taxes necessary to improve flood defences, even though I hold planners and developers responsible for the problem, with some historic exceptions. Preventing flooding up-river/stream often pushes the flooding down-river/stream. Climate change is likely to result in less snow in winter and more storms at other times of the year. It is a problem politicians, governments and business have known about since the late-1960s and chosen to ignore. I must type up and re-publish an article I wrote a long time ago whilst a Birmingham city councillor. I used two nom-de-plumes at the time (Orifice and Able Allchurch) because most of the time I was writing about the antics of the City Council's Labour Group at the behest of the then Council Leader, Stan Yapp. Here is the top of the back page of the Birmingham Trades Council Journal from December 1973:

Once I would have been out there in the snow and loving it, now, thanks my pulmonary fibrosis, I stay snug inside looking out, but my cup of tea and bun are good enough compensation. I also took a pic from our front door before the snow melts. I suspect what we are doing is being repeated all over Beeston. This really is life as it happens.

Click on pic to enlarge.

By way of a P.S. here is an earlier back page from the Trades Council Journal dated February 1972. This led to me being courted by the the then Eco Party. The Labour Party missed a trick at the time when it failed to embrace those who went on to form the Green Party.

I received my letter today and followed the instructions...

 Click on the image to enlarge.

What amuses me is the fact that the annual flu jab programme has been successfully administered for years via GPs etc. yet, even allowing for what should not be insurmountable logistical challenges, the Covid-19 jab results in hours on the telephone or on a computer trying to make an appointment locally and I haven't got one yet. I'm 76, reasonably savvy and mobile if I have to be, God knows how others are managing?

 PS. The BBC-TV regional news said later the same day (22 Jan 2021) that the vaccination programme for 75-79 year olds in Nottinghamshire and Nottingham had been been suspended whilst the NHS plays catch with those aged 80 plus.

Yummy yummy

 Took delivery today of two very different food parcels. One I broke into to have with a cup of tea an hour ago. The other came with two almond tart, which Susan and I are about to eat with a another cup of the tea.

The leek pasties are in the freezer, so we can eat them as we please. They melt in the mouth and I like to describe them as 'Little bites of heaven'. 

The sugar-free biscuits come from Life Essentials at the Beeston High Road end of Wollaton Road, which is run by a wonderful lady called Pat who, because we're in lockdown, delivers them.

The leek pasties come from The DoughMother in the Central Avenue parade of shops on the Beeston Fields estate. They are made by Houlia and we buy a dozen at a time. It's also where I go to write when we're not in lockdown.

In the meantime, look at my pics knowing where you can go to buy sugar-free biscuits and leek pasties.

For tea and supper today.

12 into the freezer.

For the larder.

Broxtowe Boro' Council elections 2019 – Turnout by wards – What does it tell us?

 I have recently got into my head that trying to predict turnouts at elections is more important than trying to predict which parties the electorate will vote for. This is the result of conversations with my grandson, who is into election statistics and mapping the Labour Party's chances of winning power again.

Back in my Wembley South Young Socialist days we were asked to help Party members in Sudbury ward to organise and fight the Borough Elections in 1962. We got a great candidate and fought hard and it was the buzz of the count in Wembley Town Hall that hooked me for life on polling days and election organising. We came close to winning and just a few days ago during a Zoomtalk with Clive, who recruited me into a embryonic YS branch from the Young Liberals (where I went following a Sudbury girl I knew and whose brother remains a close friend and also joined the YS with me), he said he always regretted us canvassing the better off roads. Had we let the would-be Conservative voters sleep through the election campaign we may well have won, and that was the lesson I took away from an exciting election we lost: always fight below the radar. Low turnouts are better for Labour than high turnouts. As simple as that!

I have been a candidate in four elections for the Labour Party  back in the 1970s and 80s. I won two in Birmingham as I expected to and I lost one in Sutton Coldfield, again as I expected to. In Nottingham I won a seat which was marginal and retained it for the Party until the city went unitary. I was also an agent more times than I can recall. I learnt early on that the best campaigning strategy is to select your candidate and to identify your support as soon as possible, then work it by staying in touch and canvassing only new voters and, the final touch, giving personal Party polling card (as we used to before they became official) to all known supporters and to ignore all other voters. I still think this is a good campaigning strategy. I also learnt early on that Labour does better when there are low turnouts and my recent post shows this very well for Nottingham-shire. Parliament's Library has data which also backs up my belief, as these two tables show for the 2017 and 2109 General Elections. In the constituencies with the lowest turnouts Labour won the most seats. I also created a similar graph for Broxtowe Borough Council election in 2019 and, yes, the three lowest turnouts were all in Labour seats. Here is the evidence. I will add a Nottinghamshire County Council 2017 elections graph before too long.*

* UPDATE: This now has its own post. Labour has to hope for low turnouts if it wants to wins seats in the Notts County Council elections due this coming May.

CLICK ON THE IMAGES TO ENLARGE: