Wednesday, 9 December 2020

The higher the turnout in General Elections the more likely Labour will lose MPs

 The table/graph below has taken me a couple of days to compile and has been prompted by an exchange of emails with our grandson Curtis, who is now at Nottingham-Trent doing an MA and a Labour Party member. It seems odd to me (and I have said this in previous Beeston Week blog posts) that we pay so little attention to trying to predict turnouts, when it tells us more about whether Labour will win or lose than asking voters if they intend to vote Labour? The evidence on this is clear (click on image to enlarge):

Is it a coincidence that the three Nottinghamshire constituencies Labour has held onto also happen to be the three constituencies that are at the bottom of the turnout list in 2001 and 2020 and on most occasions in-between? 

Use the blank table below to plot any group of constituencies you choose and see if the same happens?




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