What to look out for turnout-wise come the Notts County Council election on 6th May 2021

In an ideal world, the Nottinghamshire County Council election would be on hold until the end of the summer but the pressure is on and the Conservatives sense that they may be able to pull off some great  local election and mayoral victories, as they persuade voters to believe that they have got Covid-19 beaten, so the Government get on with it and don't let Labour's hesitancy spoil things.

I admit that I was hoping that it would all drag on and voters would stay at home. Be it Broxtowe, Nottinghamshire or across England, Labour depends on low turnouts to win seats and elections. As the tables below shows there are exceptions but all these do is prove what I say. I admit that I will following the County Council results and turnouts closely, since I happen to live in one of the County divisions (wards), Bramcote and Beeston North, with the highest turnouts in the County Council 2017 election.

Labour's historic problem with needing low turnouts to win is something it doesn't talk about, or even admit in my experience — hence my being someone with a long record of fighting elections slow and long. I call it 'campaigning under the radar' and it works.

I'll come back with an update after Thursday 6th May 2021, assuming the County Council election goes ahead.

CLICK ON THE TABLE TO SEE IT SEPARATELY.

Another look at low Labour election turnouts

 In a couple of recent posts I have touched  on the topic of election turnouts and what they mean for Labour in terms of planning campaigns. I am a lifetime 'under the radar' campaigner; someone who likes to fight elections slowly and over a long period of time and in the process identifying Labour's core vote. Low turnouts are to Labour's advantage and always have been. The House of Commons Library has lots of reports on the topic, including one on the 2019 General Election turnouts(follow this link to find it).

Here is a table from the report which should be of interest (click on tables to enlarge):

The table below is from the Library's 2017 report:

Finally, two tables tracing turnout in the last six general elections in Nottinghamshire and Staffordshire. I have collated the data for Derbyshire, Leicestershire and Birmingham. Seats with high turnouts (Broxtowe and Sherwood) were the first to go and the only three seats Labour continues to hold are low turnout Nottingham seats and this pattern is replicated across the other counties as well. Staffordshire is included because I have friends in the county. These facts should influence how Labour organises and campaigns, but I see no evidence that it does. Here are the tables (again' click on images to enlarge):

I will leave it, as there is plenty to think about. In all the talk about Labour and Keir Starmer developing policies and a strategy the importance of election turnouts is the elephant sitting in the corner unnoticed.

 

Broxtowe Boro' Council elections 2019 – Turnout by wards – What does it tell us?

 I have recently got into my head that trying to predict turnouts at elections is more important than trying to predict which parties the electorate will vote for. This is the result of conversations with my grandson, who is into election statistics and mapping the Labour Party's chances of winning power again.

Back in my Wembley South Young Socialist days we were asked to help Party members in Sudbury ward to organise and fight the Borough Elections in 1962. We got a great candidate and fought hard and it was the buzz of the count in Wembley Town Hall that hooked me for life on polling days and election organising. We came close to winning and just a few days ago during a Zoomtalk with Clive, who recruited me into a embryonic YS branch from the Young Liberals (where I went following a Sudbury girl I knew and whose brother remains a close friend and also joined the YS with me), he said he always regretted us canvassing the better off roads. Had we let the would-be Conservative voters sleep through the election campaign we may well have won, and that was the lesson I took away from an exciting election we lost: always fight below the radar. Low turnouts are better for Labour than high turnouts. As simple as that!

I have been a candidate in four elections for the Labour Party  back in the 1970s and 80s. I won two in Birmingham as I expected to and I lost one in Sutton Coldfield, again as I expected to. In Nottingham I won a seat which was marginal and retained it for the Party until the city went unitary. I was also an agent more times than I can recall. I learnt early on that the best campaigning strategy is to select your candidate and to identify your support as soon as possible, then work it by staying in touch and canvassing only new voters and, the final touch, giving personal Party polling card (as we used to before they became official) to all known supporters and to ignore all other voters. I still think this is a good campaigning strategy. I also learnt early on that Labour does better when there are low turnouts and my recent post shows this very well for Nottingham-shire. Parliament's Library has data which also backs up my belief, as these two tables show for the 2017 and 2109 General Elections. In the constituencies with the lowest turnouts Labour won the most seats. I also created a similar graph for Broxtowe Borough Council election in 2019 and, yes, the three lowest turnouts were all in Labour seats. Here is the evidence. I will add a Nottinghamshire County Council 2017 elections graph before too long.*

* UPDATE: This now has its own post. Labour has to hope for low turnouts if it wants to wins seats in the Notts County Council elections due this coming May.

CLICK ON THE IMAGES TO ENLARGE:

The higher the turnout in General Elections the more likely Labour will lose MPs

 The table/graph below has taken me a couple of days to compile and has been prompted by an exchange of emails with our grandson Curtis, who is now at Nottingham-Trent doing an MA and a Labour Party member. It seems odd to me (and I have said this in previous Beeston Week blog posts) that we pay so little attention to trying to predict turnouts, when it tells us more about whether Labour will win or lose than asking voters if they intend to vote Labour? The evidence on this is clear (click on image to enlarge):

Is it a coincidence that the three Nottinghamshire constituencies Labour has held onto also happen to be the three constituencies that are at the bottom of the turnout list in 2001 and 2020 and on most occasions in-between? 

Use the blank table below to plot any group of constituencies you choose and see if the same happens?