An archbishop says it as it is - you know it, so ask the question ...

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And the question is ‘Why can’t a politician?’

 

We can't sit on our hands and wait for the little buses to go

 I have spent time the past week creating three maps and collecting data. I have a love of buses which goes back to my childhood and is something I have written about a good many times throughout my adult life, some of it published. I've never collected bus numbers and could tell you little about bus makes and their names, but I can tell you where they go and how often they run. I have been travelling on my own on buses since I was 4 (a long time ago). What follows is for you to ponder. The issue of what happens to the the little LocalLink L10 and L11 buses which run past the end of my road is of great concern to me. They are a lifeline at times — it's as simple as that! 

Living with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis I manage well compared to many fellow sufferers but I am mindful of the fact that one slip on my part, when it comes to how and what I do, could kill me (in a couple of weeks if I'm lucky, as I don't fancy taking a year to die as my lungs give up on me). In other words I am someone who has been able to use the little buses which serve places I might not otherwise reach except by car, and, yes, we are lucky enough to have one of them, but  I've spent  a life preferring the bus to a car, so at 77 (in May) I'm not about to change the habit of a lifetime (lockdown has meant only one bus ride in a year, when last August my wife Susan and I caught the L10 to town and back (by 'town' I mean Nottingham city centre).

Go into Beeston or the Nottingham city centre by car and you have to make your way back to it. By bus or tram you can get off and get on where you want. Arguably, this has to be to the advantage of local shops and cafes etc. Get off an L10 or L11 on Wollaton Road at Denison Street, walk down the hill past shops, then onto Albion Street and along Villa Sreet to the High Road, ending up at the Interchange and bussing back up Wollaton Road and home. This an aspect of bus use I’ve yet to see any bus operator or bus authority exploit.

I don't believe the L10 and L11 LocalLink bus routes can be saved, so it is up to users like me to come up with a possible alternative and the maps and draft leaflets which follow are intended to argue for action and discussion without political point scoring, like the Liberal councillor for my ward has been indulging in. I want the Labour Party to say is that we need an open discussion about the future of local subsidised bus services in and around Beeston but, more immediately, we need the County Council to temporarily fund my version of the route and talk to CT4N to see if there is any mileage in the possibility of incorporating my suggestion into their existing route 18 hourly short working (see below for detail):

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Twelve Wasted Years and why it matters. A note to Curtis and Becca

Last year when my grandson Curtis and his girlfriend Becca arrived in Nottingham, where he had come to do an MA at Nottingham-Trent University, Susan and I took the opportunity to pass on most of our Labour and Post-war Reconstruction library. Both Labour Party members and active, it seemed only natural that these books should go to them. One was a thick paperback titled Twelve Wasted Years. You can see the cover below and somewhere in my text, a brief explanation as to its content but when Curtis sent me the image last night he made the fatal mistake of asking 'What do you need it for?' Below the cover is the reply I sent him:

Being an oldie does have its advantages. At times I feel like a walking archive and this is one of them! All the web searches in the world could not tell me what I know or the significance of Twelve Wasted Years, starting in 1951 and continuing until 1964.

In 1963 I was 19, a Young Socialist, an active trade unionist, just changed jobs and not long engaged engaged when Twelve Wasted Years was thrown into my hands by a wonderful old guy called Ray Dent, then Treasurer of Wembley South Constituency Labour Party and a world-weary ‘Labour man’, who had seen it all. He always wore a suit and ash from the cigarette half hanging of his lips always covered the front of his waistcoat.

I remember saying to him ‘Don’t you want it?’ It was as if he had given me a first edition of the New Testament. I read it with a sense of excitement over the following days and quoted from it on endless occasions thereafter. It was a work of reference: how we had got to where we were and where we were going. It was all there in one thick paperback. Read the section on housing and weep.

Ray Dent’s reply to me was ‘No need. I know what it says. It’s as if we scared to cross the finishing line, we always throw it away and one day they’re going to give up on us if your lot don’t make it happen’. The ‘they’, of course, was the working class and ‘my lot’ was the YS, then a bunch of working teenagers, a few would find their way to university, but most, like me, married young, bought houses, had their first baby and were on the way to finishing their apprenticeships, becoming  managers, civil servants, skilled workers and even young Labour Party councillors like myself, and one of our lot is now a peer. 

That, at 76, three of my ‘comrades’ from those days are still good friends I find amazing. Three of us still in the Party, one of us Green, and we all still talk politics, still believe and I have the great joy of having had Susan to listen to my rants and put me right for the past 46 years and now I have you and Becca to listen to and watch, proud to busting that you are, in so many ways, taking on a far harder fight than the one I took on from Ray Dent, your Uncle Dave and Auntie Nannie, now sadly gone but both Labour Party councillors in Harlow. How I wish you could meet them.

Uncle Dave (Howard). I took this photo in Harlow in 1960. He was a plumber and Secretary of the Plumbers Trade Union in Harlow. He became a Labour councillor for Brays Grove, where he lived in 1972. When he stood down, 16 years later, my Auntie Nannie replaced him. I spent many of my school holidays with them and my cousins until I started work in 1959 aged 15.

All this prompted by the hearing Keir Starmer a couple of days ago set out his vision and thinking is that really the best you can do? Harold Wilson became Leader of the Party in 1963, twelve years after Labour lost the 1951 General Election and with him came Twelve Wasted Years. A brave thing to do at the time and unimaginable now.

Make of all this what you will. As for myself, I fear Ray Dent’s prophecy has come to be and that the Labour Party is lost as presently constituted, but I will go to my grave a libertarian socialist and a community activist committed to localism, glad that I have had local history to guide me; that I got to ride on trolleybuses and that I have a Nottingham bus named after me. At my age I have the right to see the world a little differently and to share my vision, but that’s for next time...

All I will say is that the word 'coalescence' looms large in my future vision. 

First past the post voting results in higher turnouts than proportional representation.

Compiled these tables for a friend today. It's old data I have shown in other ways before. Even though I've supported PR since 1960 (and will continue to do so), the evidence shows quite clearly that UK electorates are more likely to vote when FPTP voting is used.

What to look out for turnout-wise come the Notts County Council election on 6th May 2021

In an ideal world, the Nottinghamshire County Council election would be on hold until the end of the summer but the pressure is on and the Conservatives sense that they may be able to pull off some great  local election and mayoral victories, as they persuade voters to believe that they have got Covid-19 beaten, so the Government get on with it and don't let Labour's hesitancy spoil things.

I admit that I was hoping that it would all drag on and voters would stay at home. Be it Broxtowe, Nottinghamshire or across England, Labour depends on low turnouts to win seats and elections. As the tables below shows there are exceptions but all these do is prove what I say. I admit that I will following the County Council results and turnouts closely, since I happen to live in one of the County divisions (wards), Bramcote and Beeston North, with the highest turnouts in the County Council 2017 election.

Labour's historic problem with needing low turnouts to win is something it doesn't talk about, or even admit in my experience — hence my being someone with a long record of fighting elections slow and long. I call it 'campaigning under the radar' and it works.

I'll come back with an update after Thursday 6th May 2021, assuming the County Council election goes ahead.

CLICK ON THE TABLE TO SEE IT SEPARATELY.

A walk and a treat for tea

 

The best day of the year, sunny, dry and not nearly as cold as the weather forecasters suggested, so I went with Susan to the local post office on Central Avenue in Beeston Fields and from there it was just a few doors down to The DoughMother artisan bakery, where I picked up two tarts for afternoon tea. We'll share cherry and almond tarts tomorrow and in a few minutes we'll be sharing a mini-pizza and phyllo pastry stuffed with spinach.

If someone I know sees this, then I will be copying some pages for her tomorrow.

Another look at low Labour election turnouts

 In a couple of recent posts I have touched  on the topic of election turnouts and what they mean for Labour in terms of planning campaigns. I am a lifetime 'under the radar' campaigner; someone who likes to fight elections slowly and over a long period of time and in the process identifying Labour's core vote. Low turnouts are to Labour's advantage and always have been. The House of Commons Library has lots of reports on the topic, including one on the 2019 General Election turnouts(follow this link to find it).

Here is a table from the report which should be of interest (click on tables to enlarge):

The table below is from the Library's 2017 report:

Finally, two tables tracing turnout in the last six general elections in Nottinghamshire and Staffordshire. I have collated the data for Derbyshire, Leicestershire and Birmingham. Seats with high turnouts (Broxtowe and Sherwood) were the first to go and the only three seats Labour continues to hold are low turnout Nottingham seats and this pattern is replicated across the other counties as well. Staffordshire is included because I have friends in the county. These facts should influence how Labour organises and campaigns, but I see no evidence that it does. Here are the tables (again' click on images to enlarge):

I will leave it, as there is plenty to think about. In all the talk about Labour and Keir Starmer developing policies and a strategy the importance of election turnouts is the elephant sitting in the corner unnoticed.

 

It’s time we had an English Parliament

 Logic says there needs to an English Parliament elected in the same way at the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly, with the MPs also being members of regional ‘Grand Committees’ working alongside directly elected Regional Ministers. 

The UK Parliament would be replaced by a Federal Chamber overseeing non-domestic matters elected at the same time as the the three national parliaments based on their political make-up. 

Local Government would be given a modern Magna Carta and the geographical areas of Mayoral (and mini-mayoral) units would be determined by local populations and plebiscites.

It does not have to be complicated. You simply build on the existing models which have been in place and working for twenty years or more.

If flying the Union Jack and wearing suits is is the best Labour's leadership can do, then they are asking the wrong questions

I found this on the web a few minutes ago marked ‘unknown’. I find it difficult to believe that the Labour Party would create such a thing! Why? The message is fine but, like it or not, the Union Jack is associated by some in Wales and many in Scotland and Northern Ireland with English dominance. I have known this well for most of my 76 years, since I’m half-English half-Irish and I have close family connections with Scotland and Wales too. Labour has lost Scotland, so it is unlikely ever to govern the United Kingdom again on its own - a painful truth it seems determined not to recognise.

If Labour’s alleged ‘plan’ is ‘to focus on (the) flag and patriotism to win back voters’ (Guardian news story, 3 February), then perhaps the Party’s Parliamentary leadership has been asking the wrong questions.

If it's votes Labour is after, then they should stick with Jeremy Corbyn's policies, albeit better managed, and I say this being no fan of Corbyn as a leader, but then I have said this of all Labour's leaders, since I am suspicious of leaders full stop. I also say this because Corbyn got more votes in 2017 and 2019 than Blair did in 2001 and 2005. Way more than Brown in 2010 and Miliband in 2015. The trouble was Corbyn got votes in the wrong places and the Conservatives got more votes in every General Election between 2005 and 2019. Had Labour made less noise, despite an overwhelmingly anti-Labour press, I believe Corbyn could have run Theresa May closer. Before Corbyn there have a string of pre-elections fiascos for Labour (1992, Kinnock triumphalist speech in Sheffield a week before polling day; 2010 Brown's 'Stupid woman' and a few other things into an open microphone and in 2015 Milliband's tablet of stone) and thanks to Corbyn's nasty brigade they kept coming in 2017 and 2019 — now Keir Starmer seems determined to follow them all into the abyss.

From getting police commissioners and councillors to mayors and MPs elected, Labour has a high dependency on low turnouts. There are notable exceptions, but all these do is make the reality more stark. Tony Blair’s General Election successes depended on low turnouts. Perhaps Keir Starmer should ask ‘What will have to happen before turnouts become low enough for Labour to win again?’

What General Election data shows us is that Labour will struggle to win England and needs to adopt a strategy which embraces pluralism and few Labour politicians recognise this, Clive Lewis being an exception. I see no signs of this happening under the present Labour leadership. 

Nottingham: it's difficult to quantify low local election turnouts when there's no real opposition

 This is the latest (and last) of my Nottinghamshire elections' analyses. The city has 55 councillors of whom 50 are Labour. Probably the three turnouts which jump out are the: Radford (17%); Lenton and Wollaton East (21%) and Wollaton West (49%), none of them close finishes. My table makes what comments I want to make, other than there is something unhealthy about an electoral system which enables one political party to sweep all others asides on low turnouts, but saying this this is the electorate speaking.

I also know from this exercise over the last few weeks that where there are elections using either a single transferrable vote system (STV) or a first past the post/added member system (AMS) the turn-out is lower than in FPTP elections (generally speaking), in which electors know that their votes will have more value has not resulted in higher turnouts — quite the reverse in fact!

I have always believed our electoral system(s) to be flawed and I would like to see more pluralistic government at all levels, but this a topic for another day. Right now, my focus is on the 2019 Nottingham City Council election and here is my table (click on the table to enlarge):

The future of LocalLink bus routes L10 and L11 is up for discussion, so let's make sure we take advantage of the opportunity

 

Click on the map above to enlarge and to find out more, please enter 'buggy bus' in the 'Search' window in the right-hand column (about half-way down). This will link you to posts by me dating back over several years.

News posted by Borough and County Councillor Steve Carr on the Beeston Updated Facebook page that Nottingham City Council has launched a consultation into the future of LocalLink bus routes L10 and L11 will come as no surprise to those who take an interest in, and use, public transport in and around Beeston and Nottingham.

Beeston has long been a beneficiary of the City Council’s largess because it no obligations to Beeston, since we are outside the city’s boundary. I have suspected for some time that it would come to an end, given the ever deepening financial mire local government is in.

It will not be enough to argue for the status quo because, having read the consultation document and knowing the City Council wants to save £700,000 with good reason, saving the existing L10 and L11 bus routes is not an option.  What we have to do is take advantage of the consultation to look at how alternative community bus services can best be provided in and around Beeston — hence my idea for a Beeston Buggi Bus Network.

We all have to work together. This is not an issue for political point scoring!

UPDATE: Will add a link to the City Council consultation here. Click to see.

I’ve become a tiny part of how the NHS is changing for the better

 

This is me with my new NHS electronic spirometer which, via an app and my mobile phone, enables me to send lung test measurements I take periodically direct to Nottingham City Hospital’s Lung Department. We were introduced to one another at the City Hospital a week ago with the help of a wonderful member of staff, who took me and Susan through the procedure step-by-step, and after a week of sending in daily test results I learned today that I will part of the program to remotely monitor people with lung conditions (I was diagnosed with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in 2015 and have been living very differently ever since).

The pandemic has changed the way we are cared for dramatically and I have become a tiny part of that future, one where more and more of us will be monitored remotely, thus reducing the number of visits we make to hospitals, clinics and the like.

The NHS needs more resources and staff and this Government has to be reminded at every opportunity by all those who care about the NHS of its Brexit promise to redirect £350millions a week to the NHS. Remember this?

Providing outreach services like the ones I am a beneficiary of is one way of spending money differently, so money can go further. The NHS needs spare capacity when it comes to resources, staffing and quality of care. - if the pandemic teaches us anything it should be this.

Many of the NHS 'horror stories' we see, hear or read about in the media come down to overworked staff, often depressed, working long shifts. We all want someone to blame, so perhaps we should look in a mirror, because Governments that fail the NHS are a measurement of shortcomings in ourselves.

My time will come soon enough. In the meantime I am happy with what I have. I am fitter and feel healthier than I have at any other time in my life, despite being a few months short of 77 and medically ‘vulnerable’. I had open heart surgery four years ago this month to replace part of my aortic valve (I was born with two cusps instead of three, which was discovered thanks to Nottingham City Hospital’s Lung Department back in 2015). I am here today thanks to our NHS and what it does with limited resources. 

I am one lucky bunny.