Euro Election result for Broxtowe Borough Council area (click on result to enlarge):

Excluding Labour and the Conservatives, the Leave camp received a total of 12,975 votes and the Remain camp 12,729. Close, but now two out of two for the Leave camp. Best of five anyone?

The Brexit Party provides a clear focus for Leave voters and that has to be an advantage.

Between a rock and a hard place - Labour’s dilemma

From the lead story in today’s Guardian about the Euro election results:

The Labour leader (Jeremy Corbyn) said “After three years of Tory failure to deliver a Brexit that works for the whole country, these elections became a proxy second referendum. Over the coming days we will have conversations across our party and movement, and reflect on these results on both sides of the Brexit divide.”

I used my postal vote in yesterday's Euro election to vote Green. As I explained in my blog post dated 11 May 2019:

The Labour Party continues to flounder when it comes to Europe despite saying quite clearly ‘Labour accepts the Referendum result’. It is split just like the Conservatives. We are either in or out. We can leave soft or we can leave hard. If we leave I’d like it to be ‘soft’, with as little disruption as possible but, like it or not, the Euro Election on the 23rd is, in effect, going to be ‘The People’s Vote’ / 2nd referendum but not a ‘Confirmatory vote’ because no one knows, as at today, what the terms of our leaving are going to be! So, if you want to leave you’ll vote Brexit or UKIP. If you want to stay, you’ll vote Change UK, Liberal or Green and I have cast my postal vote for the latter.

For me it was the last role of the dice when it came to voting Remain. It was 'a proxy second referendum' as I predicted it would be and Jeremy Corbyn confirmed in The Guardian today. 

I'm happy to go with Jeremy Corbyn on this one and anyone who heard Stephen Kinnock last night on BBC-TV's post-election results programme who is not blind to the obvious will see merit in what he says about keeping faith with Labour's working class leave voters.

The Remainers have had their chance and they have blown it.

We stayed up last night and watched the results as they came in. Two things struck us. That there was hardly any mention of the percentage turnout and on the few occasions when there was it was low. Given the media's 24/7 coverage no one could not know the Euro election was taking place. Secondly, we will have to wait a few days before we know how electors voted by age group. Brexit and UKIP have to be taken together, both being willing to leave without a deal. Again, no one voting for them could be in any doubt as to where they stand on Brexit. On the other side of the divide, the Liberals, Greens and Change UK stood for Remain.

I captured the table below from the BBC News website (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-
48403131) (click on the table to enlarge):

What it suggests to me is that Labour 'Remain' voters did not desert the Party in the same numbers as 'Leave' voters — in other words the last thing Labour's leadership should be calling for is a general election because the Brexit Party will have a field day at Labour's expense. Farage has it sights set on Downing Street and the man is on a roll. The Conservatives understand this and will choose a leader to counter him and, in my estimation, stand a better chance of bouncing back than Labour. Stephen Kinnock and Jeremy Corbyn need to be listened to, assuming Corbyn does finally show some leadership.

The last thing Labour should be arguing for before we have left Europe is a General Election. 

Post-Brexit I am in no doubt that Labour is the Party to lead England's recovery. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are, for all intents and purposes, in charge of their own destinies. 

Farage and his Brexit Party will not be sated once we have left Europe. I suspect they will then champion English nationalism and point out that those of us who live in England are not in charge of our own affairs so long as MPs from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland can vote on what happens in England, and I have to admit it is a powerful argument — which I would counter by devolving power back to local government in England.

Even then there will be the question of how to stop London and Westminster dominating the rest of England?

This may seem a long way from yesterday's Euro Election and its miserable results but the seeds sown when Parliament agreed to the first referendum have reaped their second harvest with the promise of more to come and, as yesterday showed, there is no magic weed killer. From now on it has to be about care and good cultivation and I know only one national politician with green fingers — Jeremy Corbyn!

I just hope he finds the courage, albeit belatedly, to show leadership.

FOOTNOTE 1: Nottingham and Leicester were among the few bright spots where Labour came first. I am in no doubt that strong local leadership by the Labour Party played a part.

FOOTNOTE 2: The Euro Election turnout, I have just heard on the BBC 2pm TV News was 37%! Yes, a miserable 37%! I wait with interest to see what percentage of each age group voted.

FOOTNOTE 3: From today's Guardian also. 'Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable says it is "very clear" that there is a "clear majority in the country who want to stop Brexit". "We've had a brilliant result, we've got a lot now to build on," he adds.'

The 62% who didn't vote read and hear this kind of Westminster speak and it only confirms their low opinion of professional politicians.

FOOTNOTE 4: Another quote from today's Guardian. THis time from an article by Gloria De Piero, MP for Ashfield, which includes part of Broxtowe Borough Council's area: 

'Another referendum will not fix the problem, it will merely reinforce it. Further, I’ve seen nothing to suggest the outcome of a referendum would be different. But even if it produced a narrow remain victory, why would that have legitimacy when the first referendum didn’t? It smacks of a political establishment that wants to keep asking the same question until it gets the answer it wants. According to the academics Roger Eatwell and Matthew Goodwin, 58% of those who voted to leave also say that politicians don’t listen to people like them. Surely we want to prove them wrong, not right?

Some of my colleagues argue that a second referendum is the only way out of this impasse, but it’s clear many just see it as a way of blocking Brexit altogether. If that happened, and Labour was instrumental in overturning a democratic mandate, then what do we say to leave voters, and indeed millions of remain voters, who do accept the mandate and want to move on, the next time we ask them to trust us?'.

Here is a link to the article.

Beeston Transport Spider Map update

I have updated my Beeston Transport Spider Map to take account of the L11 being withdrawn between Bulwell and Arnold (the 23 June has been mentioned but has to be confirmed). I have also added Bramcote's sunken church tower and Wollaton Dovecote to the heritage locations marked on the map. Click on the map to enlarge.

The Euro Election, the Stapleford South East ward election and a Borough Election footnote...

I cast my postal vote today in the Euro Election. I have been in the habit of spoiling my Euro Election ballot paper because I believe the Party List system is undemocratic. Take the East Midlands. Five names per party, so if a party gets c.40% they get two MEPs and the top two names listed by the Party are elected. Voters have no say in who is elected and it is unnecessarily complicated! I would amend the system to give me five votes for named individuals instead of one vote for a Party, so I might vote 3 Labour and 2 Greens and Labour might get 30% of the votes and the Greens 20%. Labour would get at least 2 MEPs who would be the candidates who got the most votes - NOT necessarily the Party’s choices. 

The Labour Party continues to flounder when it comes to Europe despite saying quite clearly ‘Labour accepts the Referendum result’. It is split just like the Conservatives. We are either in or out. We can leave soft or we can leave hard. If we leave I’d like it to be ‘soft’, with as little disruption as possible but, like it or not, the Euro Election on the 23rd is, in effect, going to be ‘The People’s Vote’ / 2nd referendum but not a ‘Confirmatory vote’ because no one knows, as at today, what the terms of our leaving are going to be! So, if you want to leave you’ll vote Brexit or UKIP. If you want to stay**, you’ll vote Change UK, Liberal or Green and I have cast my postal vote for the latter today. Voters and the media will aggregate these votes and ignore what Conservative and Labour votes there are (though it could be argued both are in the leave camp). I suspect the two right-wing nationalist Parties will carry the day. There is still a lot of anger out there. In other words we have to hope Labour can, after weeks of negotiations with May, deliver a soft Brexit.

**Outside England there will be other remain parties to vote for and if Scotland votes decisively different to England then independence will be back on the agenda big time (I would be an independence voter if I was in Scotland).

I want to stay in the EU but in the absence of a majority of votes for the three pro-EU political parties  on 23rd May then the arguments for another EU vote of any kind will be dead. This is a mess of Parliament’s making and the confrontational politics of first past the post (FTP)... 

...and please please don’t pretend we have a coalition government now. What we have is a mess and far too many MPs who are craven.

I have no idea of what is going to happen in the delayed Stapleford South East Ward Borough Election on 13th June, but in 2015 all the Parties were close.* Anna Soubry claims it is between the Conservatives and Liberals. The national scene is so unpredictable that any last minute event could tip the result regardless of how much effort local councillors and activists put in. One thing is certain. The Conservatives have to be defeated make life easier for Labour and the Liberals to run Broxtowe Borough Council.

*Highest votes for each Party in 2015:

836 – Conservatives
781 – Labour
672 – Liberal

Given the Liberals performance in the nearby wards of  Beeston North and Bramcote in the Borough Elections on 2nd May just gone they must fancy their chances. 

The voters in Stapleford South East ward are going to be get the attention of national politicos and the media for sure, and with the closing date for nominations being this coming Thursday 16th May, what other political parties and groups will be putting up candidates? We will know soon enough.

It may be that a outsider will take it. I doubt if Broxtowe has had a ward election like this one in its history.

Finally, the few who visit my blog will know that I believe with increasing numbers of houses being occupied by students comes declining electoral rolls. I call it 'Lentonisation' because this was certainly the case in neighbouring Lenton, where the number of city councillors representing the are has fallen from 4 to 3 in the latest ward boundary review, and I have made the same prediction for Beeston. I was fully expecting to see a decline in registered voters and as the table below shows it hasn't happened — yet.

I stand by my prediction. It took Lenton a good 25 years to change out of all recognition population-wise as more and more owner-occupier families sold to private landlords and house prices escalated beyond the reach of families and other would be Lenton residents.

For now the Beeston ward totals show that only in Rylands have voter numbers decreased, then by only 26 votes. 

The Local Government Boundary Commission for England at the time of their Broxtowe ward boundary review in 2013 estimated the number of voters by ward and I have included their estimates in the final column (in italics). Both Central and North ward are well over the LGBCE estimate and I suspect this is student related. New housing developments add to the totals but these have yet to materialise on a large scale. There is Broadgate and the old fire/bus station site in the pipeline.

I hope I am around in 2023 to see what has happened by then.