What to look out for turnout-wise come the Notts County Council election on 6th May 2021

In an ideal world, the Nottinghamshire County Council election would be on hold until the end of the summer but the pressure is on and the Conservatives sense that they may be able to pull off some great  local election and mayoral victories, as they persuade voters to believe that they have got Covid-19 beaten, so the Government get on with it and don't let Labour's hesitancy spoil things.

I admit that I was hoping that it would all drag on and voters would stay at home. Be it Broxtowe, Nottinghamshire or across England, Labour depends on low turnouts to win seats and elections. As the tables below shows there are exceptions but all these do is prove what I say. I admit that I will following the County Council results and turnouts closely, since I happen to live in one of the County divisions (wards), Bramcote and Beeston North, with the highest turnouts in the County Council 2017 election.

Labour's historic problem with needing low turnouts to win is something it doesn't talk about, or even admit in my experience — hence my being someone with a long record of fighting elections slow and long. I call it 'campaigning under the radar' and it works.

I'll come back with an update after Thursday 6th May 2021, assuming the County Council election goes ahead.

CLICK ON THE TABLE TO SEE IT SEPARATELY.

Labour has to hope for low turnouts* if it wants to wins seats in the Notts County Council elections due this coming May.

 *With a few exceptions, it is fair to say that in the 2017 Nottinghamshire County Council elections, Labour did badly. Just one Division/Ward won in the district council areas of Ashfield, Broxtowe and Rushcliffe.

With the exception of Beeston Rylands (41.8%) and West Bridgford North (47.2%), Labour won 16 divisions on turnouts averaging 31.9%. In the three Mansfield divisions Labour won, the turnout averaged 27.1%. 

In the 28 divisions the Conservatives won the average turnout was 38.4%, whilst the division with the second highest turnout of all was Bramcote & Beeston North with 48.2% and the only seat on Notts County Council to be won by a Liberal Democrat councillor (Steve Carr).

Put another way, out of the 18 divisions Labour won 10 (56%) on turnouts of 33% or less (in the Broxtowe 2019 Borough Council elections Labour won seats in 3 out of 6 wards where the turnout was 33% or less). There is a pattern here that is mirrored in the 2019 Nottinghamshire Parliamentary elections.

You can also say the evidence shows that as turnouts go up so Labour is more likely to lose, be it a district council election, a county council election or for parliament. My earlier post shows this quite clearly for Broxtowe Borough Council and Nottinghamshire parliamentary constituencies. Now the figures here show it for Notts County Council too, as I have summarised above.

I have created a table similar to the Broxtowe turnout table and Nottinghamshire constituency graph you can find via the link above. Here is my table showing Notts County Council election 2017 turnouts by district councils and divisions ranked by turnout (CLICK ON THE TABLE TO ENLARGE):

I suspect the May 2021 county council elections may be postponed because of the continuing pandemic, but whenever it takes place if the turnout is low, then Labour could be the potential winner.