The Euro Election, the Stapleford South East ward election and a Borough Election footnote...

I cast my postal vote today in the Euro Election. I have been in the habit of spoiling my Euro Election ballot paper because I believe the Party List system is undemocratic. Take the East Midlands. Five names per party, so if a party gets c.40% they get two MEPs and the top two names listed by the Party are elected. Voters have no say in who is elected and it is unnecessarily complicated! I would amend the system to give me five votes for named individuals instead of one vote for a Party, so I might vote 3 Labour and 2 Greens and Labour might get 30% of the votes and the Greens 20%. Labour would get at least 2 MEPs who would be the candidates who got the most votes - NOT necessarily the Party’s choices. 

The Labour Party continues to flounder when it comes to Europe despite saying quite clearly ‘Labour accepts the Referendum result’. It is split just like the Conservatives. We are either in or out. We can leave soft or we can leave hard. If we leave I’d like it to be ‘soft’, with as little disruption as possible but, like it or not, the Euro Election on the 23rd is, in effect, going to be ‘The People’s Vote’ / 2nd referendum but not a ‘Confirmatory vote’ because no one knows, as at today, what the terms of our leaving are going to be! So, if you want to leave you’ll vote Brexit or UKIP. If you want to stay**, you’ll vote Change UK, Liberal or Green and I have cast my postal vote for the latter today. Voters and the media will aggregate these votes and ignore what Conservative and Labour votes there are (though it could be argued both are in the leave camp). I suspect the two right-wing nationalist Parties will carry the day. There is still a lot of anger out there. In other words we have to hope Labour can, after weeks of negotiations with May, deliver a soft Brexit.

**Outside England there will be other remain parties to vote for and if Scotland votes decisively different to England then independence will be back on the agenda big time (I would be an independence voter if I was in Scotland).

I want to stay in the EU but in the absence of a majority of votes for the three pro-EU political parties  on 23rd May then the arguments for another EU vote of any kind will be dead. This is a mess of Parliament’s making and the confrontational politics of first past the post (FTP)... 

...and please please don’t pretend we have a coalition government now. What we have is a mess and far too many MPs who are craven.

I have no idea of what is going to happen in the delayed Stapleford South East Ward Borough Election on 13th June, but in 2015 all the Parties were close.* Anna Soubry claims it is between the Conservatives and Liberals. The national scene is so unpredictable that any last minute event could tip the result regardless of how much effort local councillors and activists put in. One thing is certain. The Conservatives have to be defeated make life easier for Labour and the Liberals to run Broxtowe Borough Council.

*Highest votes for each Party in 2015:

836 – Conservatives
781 – Labour
672 – Liberal

Given the Liberals performance in the nearby wards of  Beeston North and Bramcote in the Borough Elections on 2nd May just gone they must fancy their chances. 

The voters in Stapleford South East ward are going to be get the attention of national politicos and the media for sure, and with the closing date for nominations being this coming Thursday 16th May, what other political parties and groups will be putting up candidates? We will know soon enough.

It may be that a outsider will take it. I doubt if Broxtowe has had a ward election like this one in its history.

Finally, the few who visit my blog will know that I believe with increasing numbers of houses being occupied by students comes declining electoral rolls. I call it 'Lentonisation' because this was certainly the case in neighbouring Lenton, where the number of city councillors representing the are has fallen from 4 to 3 in the latest ward boundary review, and I have made the same prediction for Beeston. I was fully expecting to see a decline in registered voters and as the table below shows it hasn't happened — yet.

I stand by my prediction. It took Lenton a good 25 years to change out of all recognition population-wise as more and more owner-occupier families sold to private landlords and house prices escalated beyond the reach of families and other would be Lenton residents.

For now the Beeston ward totals show that only in Rylands have voter numbers decreased, then by only 26 votes. 

The Local Government Boundary Commission for England at the time of their Broxtowe ward boundary review in 2013 estimated the number of voters by ward and I have included their estimates in the final column (in italics). Both Central and North ward are well over the LGBCE estimate and I suspect this is student related. New housing developments add to the totals but these have yet to materialise on a large scale. There is Broadgate and the old fire/bus station site in the pipeline.

I hope I am around in 2023 to see what has happened by then.